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Власти КНДР готовятся сделать важное сообщение


Рекомендуемые сообщения

Власти Северной Кореи намерены в ближайшее время сделать важное сообщение, сообщает японская газета Yomiuri Shimbun со ссылкой на источники во внешнеполитическом ведомстве.

 

По данным издания, передает AFP, сотрудникам дипкорпуса КНДР за рубежом разослано специальное предупреждение, в котором им рекомендовано воздержаться от длительных поездок и приготовится к получению важного сообщения. Другая японская газета - The Sankei, ссылающаяся на представителей Минобороны Японии, пишет, что сообщение будет сделано в понедельник, 20 октября. С понедельника, отмечает издание, КНДР введет запрет на въезд в страну граждан иностранных государств, сообщает AP.

 

Источники Yomiuri Shimbun предположили, что ожидаемое сообщение может быть связано со здоровьем лидера КНДР Ким Чен Ира или с отношениями с Южной Кореей. The Sankei, в свою очередь, пишет, что сообщение может быть связано с переворотом в КНДР.

 

Информацию об инструкции, распространенной среди северокорейских дипломатов, подтвердили и сотрудники спецслужб Южной Кореи. Они также затруднились предположить, о каком сообщении идет речь.

 

AFP, в свою очередь, напоминает, что западные СМИ в последнее время активно обсуждали вопрос о состоянии здоровья Ким Чен Ир, долгое время не появлявшегося на публике. В начале октября КНДР опубликовала фотографии Ким Чен Ира, посещающего расположение одной из военных частей. Однако сразу же после публикации подлинность этих снимков была поставлена экспертами под сомнение.

 

_ttp://lenta.ru/news/2008/10/19/korea/

 

Не так давно, США, ни с того, ни с сего взяли и исключили Северную Корею из "списка прокаженных". Судя по всему, разведка доложила Жоржу, что Ким Чен Ир действительно почил и пора сделать небольшой реверанс перед будущей властью страны. Глядишь - чучхекратия и потянется к Оплоту Свобод...

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Не думал, что это будет кому-либо интересным, но, если хотите:

North Korea After Kim Author: Jayshree Bajoria, Staff Writer

 

September 24, 2008

 

Introduction

Transfer of Power

Opportunity for Reform?

The Denuclearization Process

Implications for the Region

Relations with the United States

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Introduction

The absence of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il (Chosun Ilbo) from the country's sixtieth anniversary celebrations in September 2008 sparked questions about his health and intense speculation about the future of the country without him. North Korea, a nuclear-armed country under communist rule, is one of the most closed-off societies in the world. A new CFR Council Special Report (PDF) says there is a genuine possibility that North Korea might intentionally transfer nuclear weapons or materials to a terrorist group, and thus merits Cold War-style methods of deterrence from the United States. While some experts believe the country might see some reform in the period after Kim, others see little hope for change, especially in the so far unsuccessful effort to rid North Korea of its nuclear weapons.

 

Transfer of Power

Since its founding in 1945, North Korea has been under the leadership of the Kim dynasty. Known as the "Great Leader," Kim Il-Sung ruled from 1945 until his death in 1994. His son, Kim Jong-Il, the "Dear Leader," took over as head of state in 1994 and is now 66. Both father and son have ruled the country as an absolute dictatorship. Experts have often characterized North Korea as a failed state that is unable to provide for its people. Gary Samore, CFR's vice president and an expert on North Korea, says it is probably the most brutal regime in the world today.

 

Kim Jong-Il has three sons but has not announced his successor, leading to worries about who will control the country after him and if the transition will be peaceful. News reports have cited South Korean officials as saying Kim was recovering from a stroke (BBC) he suffered in August. But North Korean officials denied that Kim was ill. Even if Kim's death occurs without a clear successor in place, chaos is unlikely, says Samore. "The North Korean political system has demonstrated surprising resilience and stability in the past," says Evans J. R. Revere, president of the Korea Society, a New York based nonprofit organization. He says the main elements of state pow er in North Korea-the Korean Workers' Party, the military, and the security apparatus-seem to be functioning as usual and "preservation of the country's political, social, and economic system remains the regime's highest priority."

 

Robert Carlin, a former U.S. State Department official who took part in negotiations with North Korea from 1992-2000, says post-Kim scenarios prompt discussions of North Korea's collapse by those on the outside because of their view of North Korea as an illegitimate state. But that's not how North Koreans view their country, he says, noting "as far as I can tell they have a strong sense of nationalism and national identity."

 

North Korea analysts think a kind of collective leadership is most likely to emerge in the absence of a recognized successor. "The problem is none of his sons are in a strong position as a successor," says Samore. The eldest of Kim's sons, Kim Jong-nam, 37, went into exile after being arrested by Japanese immigration authorities for attempting to enter on a forged passport in 2001. The other two, Kim Jong-chol (27) and Kim Jong-un (25), are too young, say experts. Samore outlines what a collective leadership might look like-the country would be run by senior officials of the party and the military with one of Kim's sons as a figurehead.

 

Very little is known about Kim Jong-Il's inner circle but some names have emerged in recent times. Kim's brother-in-law, Jang Sung-taek, 62, is occasionally cited as his right hand man. Jang was promoted to the post of Minister of Administration in October 2007, and is responsible for the National Security Agency, the People's Safety Agency, Central Procurator's Office, and the Central Court. Kim Yong-nam, 70, president of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly, is often touted as Pyongyang's number two, and is the ceremonial head of state. He represents North Korea on all state visits and also receives visiting heads of state. North Korea's Premier Kim Yong-il is another top official.

 

Some experts think Kim Jong-Il's "military-first" policy has made the country's armed forces very strong and they might take greater control of the country in the future-and in such a scenario, Pyongyang would toe a harder line. However, Samore says the entire North Korean leadership is focused on one thing-survival. He says it will continue to use a combination of tough and soft policies-one to threaten and deter the outside world and the other to try to gain as much aid and assistance as possible.

 

Opportunity for Reform?

North Korea remains one of the poorest countries in the world, with per capita GDP of $1,900. According to South Korea's Central Bank, the North's GDP declined by 2.3 percent in 2007, while the GDP growth in the agricultural industry decreased by 9.4 percent. In July 2008, the World Food Program warned North Korea was suffering its worst hunger levels since the late 1990s and almost $8 million per week was needed to provide the level of food assistance required. The country spends a significant portion of its GDP on its military, whose ranks are filled by one fifth of its population of 23 million people in active or reserve status. According to this 2004 Congressional Research Service Report, 25 percent of GDP was spent on military expenditure (PDF) in 2002.

 

"But clearly the DPRK that we see today is quite different from the one that existed even five years ago," says Revere, pointing to an increasing reliance on the market, and a growing understanding among the population of the role of markets and money. This has also led to a boom in black markets and increased smuggling along the China border, say experts. "With the partial exception of the military industry, the only functioning parts of the North Korean economy are the unofficial private markets," writes Andrei Lankov, an associate professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, in Foreign Affairs.

 

North Korea has engaged in increased trade and economic cooperation with neighbors South Korea and China. A growing number of Chinese firms are investing in North Korea and gaining concessions like preferable trading terms and port operations. David C. Kang, a professor of government at Dartmouth College, in this December 2007 interview to CFR.org, said North Korea was beginning to take the initial steps "to open up reform and yet maintain control. "

 

But there is no consensus among experts regarding Pyongyang's road to reform. While most agree that there is little chance of any political reform, economic reforms, however, remain a difficult issue. Revere says: "Economic transformation in the North is inevitable, primarily because the economy is so badly battered, but the content and direction of that transformation seem likely to follow a different path than China's." Lankov argues otherwise. "Were North Korea to reform, the disparities with South Korea would only become starker to its populations," which could undermine state control and legitimacy, writes Lankov. Meanwhile, Samore says if North Korean leaders allowed economic or political reform, it would "cease to exist as a country."

 

The Denuclearization Process

The Six-Party Talks, the multilateral agreement to end Pyongyang's nuclear program, came to deadlock in September 2008 after North Korea expelled international inspectors from Yongbyon, its main plutonium-producing nuclear facility, and removed seals and security cameras intended to prevent Pyongyang from reactivating the plant. Pyongyang said it would return nuclear materials to the reprocessing plant within a week in order to reactivate the facility. The Yongbyon site was shut down in July 2007 as Pyongyang agreed to cease its nuclear activity in exchange for foreign aid and diplomatic incentives.

 

CFR's Samore says a post-Kim North Korea will have little impact on the denuclearization process. "The policy followed by the current government will be followed by any successive government," he says, "which is to retain their nuclear weapons." In the book, America's Role in Asia: Asian and American Views, Han Sung-Joo, Chairman of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, writes: "For Kim Jong-Il, nuclear weapons are not only an essential security assurance and a bargaining tool (PDF), but also an irreplaceable instrument of domestic control and political survival." Experts say Kim's successors, similarly, would not risk looking weak by giving up the nuclear weapons, instead, will continue to use them to extract benefits in the form of money and oil from the West.

 

 

Implications for the Region

For Seoul, an unstable North is even more dangerous. The two countries are technically at war in the absence of a peace treaty at the end of the Korean War in 1953. Experts say Koreans in both parts of the peninsula have long hoped for reunification. A 2006 Gallup poll found 67 percent of South Koreans wanted the reunification of the Koreas. However, the enormous costs have become a disincentive to support near-term reunification, say experts. The poll found 56 percent South Koreans saying they had more to lose than gain from the reunification. Seoul has been engaging in economic cooperation with Pyongyang to try to transform the North gradually so that unification may be less costly economically and politically for the South. But given the North's opposition to reunification, experts say, it is only possible in the near term if North Korea collapses. China, some Western experts say, is interested in preserving North Korea as a buffer zone between itself and democratic South Korea, and does not accept reunification on U.S. terms. The Chinese government says it will go on supporting North and South Korea in improving relations and realizing independent peaceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula.

 

Relations with the United States

The U.S. role in the Korean War, as this Crisis Guide explains, and its longtime presence in South Korea, translated to an antagonistic relationship between Washington and Pyongyang. Bound by a 1954 Mutual Security Agreement to defend South Korea in the event of outside aggression, the United States has some 28,000 troops and marines stationed in the country. However, North Korea and the United States have made some attempts in recent years toward normalizing relations. In October 2000, the two countries signed a joint communiqué for better bilateral relations. And the denuclearization plan of 2007 also sought improved relations through a multilateral engagement working toward ending North Korea's nuclear program.

 

In February 2008, the New York Philharmonic performed in Pyongyang. Revere, who traveled with the orchestra, says the concert was a signal by North Korea's leadership of "its desire for better relations with the United States." But Pyongyang's continuing possession of nuclear weapons will make such a relationship "impossible to achieve," he says, "just as it will prolong and possibly deepen" its isolation in the international community.

 

The presence of nuclear weapons also makes the international community more fearful of any future instability in North Korea, prompting calls for better contingency plans. Currently, the U.S. and South Korean Combined Forces Command have a contingency plan, CONPLAN 5029 (GlobalSecurity.org), to prepare for North Korea's collapse. The plan outlines how the South Korean and U.S. forces would respond to a civil war in the north, a mass exodus of refugees, natural disasters, kidnapping of South Korean citizens, or loss of control over weapons of mass destruction.

 

 

Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.

Council on Foreign Relations

А действия США - попытка поманить руководство к себе сладким пряником - показатель того, что американцы полагают, что в руководстве КНДР есть некий раскол.

Как говорится, "доказательство жизни"

Ув. Искендер, в южнокорейских и иных, близких США СМИ подобные сообщения появляются каждые полгода - см. вашу же ветку.

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